Brazil or Spain? No doubt that both are the best in the world today. Both are winners of their continents, both qualified in an impressive way, and both produced some of the finest football we watched in the new millenium.
But wait a second, let's check history in what I call (Team Life Cycle):
- 2006: It was Brazil, and no one else. When I saw the way Brazil beating Argentina in 2005 with four stunning goals, I thought this is the team of the 21st century and for sure they can win any other team. One year later, they were very unconvincing and were out by the Quarter Final.
- 2002: I remember a quote by Beckenbaure in 2002 "I said Argentina or France will win the world cup, but after the first round, I shut up". Both teams were knocked out at first round.
- 1992 (Euro): France qualified after a perfect record in its group, without losing a single point. World Soccer magazine awarded them as "Team of the year" in 1991. They also had Jean Pier Papin, European player of the year. In Euro 1992, France could not win a single game and were out from the first round.
- 1990: Everyone was talking about Netherlands dream team that won Euro 88 and played one of the finest football in history with AC Milan in 1989 and 1990, winning both European Cup finals.
In the personal level too, it is not any less dramatic:
- 2006: Ronaldinho did his best season with Barcelona winning the Champion League. Few week later, he had very modest appearance with Brazil WC.
- 2002: Zidane scored his best goal ever winning the Champion League with Real Madrid. About a month later, he was out with France in one of their worst WC appearances.
- Euro 92 and WC 90: Marco Van Basten had two great seasons with AC Milan winning the top scorer in both seasons. In both competitions with his national team he could not score a single goal and his appearance was too paled.
Football schedule became too hectic and intense, and it is getting worse and worse. Yesterday, I read an interview with Robbin complaining about long season with the club and short period to prepare. About 10 years ago, I read an interview with Beckenbauer warning of this trend. That local and Champion Leagues will compete with World Cup. We can see too many players are injured now.
This why in 2002 World Cup, big part of Ronaldo performance was regarded to his fitness and readiness, and that he was resting and recovery before the World Cup. It was fortunate to him, that only few weeks before the World Cup he started playing again. His first goal int he final game, was a best example of fitness power, and against whom? German defenders!
My idea of the Teams Life Cycle, that is a team can hardly keep its peak for two or three seasons. There is a build up period for the peak of any team. This why I think another team might find its peak during the Mondial, like Holland or Germany.
It is very difficult to judge before seeing the first one or two games of the World Cup. For Spain, there are a lot of injury doubts for Torres, Iniesta, Xavi, Febregas. Yes, Spain got so much depth and substitutes in their squad, but yet, without these stars, I doubt that we can nominate Spain seriously for the World Cup.
As for Brazil, it is less critical. Robinho was playing in Santos with less pressure of the long European seasons. There is more depth for Brazilian team than any other team in the world. And when you watch their games, you recognize, the individual importance is much less.
I still keep Brazil as #1 and Spain #2, but with some reservations.
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